Preliminary estimates, based on data on bilateral migrant stocks for 2010 and assumptions about migrant incomes, suggest that annual diaspora savings of developing countries could be in the range of $400 billion. Diaspora saving as a share of GDP is estimated to be 2.3 percent in middle-income countries and as high as 9 percent in low-income countries.

Officially recorded remittance flows to developing countries are estimated to increase by 6 percent to $325 billion in 2010. This marks a healthy recovery from a 5.5 percent decline registered in 2009. Remittance flows are expected to increase by 6.2 percent in 2011 and 8.1 percent in 2012, to reach $374 billion by 2012. (Note that the World Bank’s definition of developing countries has changed: Poland, which is estimated to have received $9.1 billion in 2010, is no longer classified as a developing country.)

Officially recorded remittance flows to developing countries reached $316 billion in 2009, down 6 percent from $336 billion in 2008. With improved prospects for the global economy, remittance flows to developing countries are expected to increase by 6.2 percent in 2010 and 7.1 percent in 2011, a faster pace of recovery in 2010 than our earlier forecasts.

Newly available data show that officially recorded remittance flows to developing countries reached $338 billion in 2008, higher than our previous estimate of $328 billion. Based on monthly and quarterly data released by some central banks and in line with the World Bank’s global economic outlook we estimate that remittance flows to developing countries will fall to $317 billion in 2009. This 6.1 percent decline is smaller than our earlier expectation of a 7.3 percent fall.

Newly available data show that remittance flows to developing countries reached $328 billion in 2008, larger than our previous estimate of $305 billion. Remittances grew rapidly during 2007 and 2008, but have slowed down in many corridors since the last quarter of 2008. In line with a recent downward revision in the World Bank’s forecast of global economic growth, we have also lowered our forecasts for remittance flows to developing countries to -7.3 percent in 2009 from the earlier forecast of -5 percent.

Revised forecasts for remittance flows to developing countries in the light of a downward revision to the World Bank’s global economic outlook suggest a sharper decline of 5‐8 percent in 2009 compared to our earlier projections. This decline in nominal dollar terms is small relative to the projected fall in private capital flows or official aid to developing countries.

After several years of strong growth, remittance flows to developing countries began to slow down in the third quarter of 2008. This slowdown is expected to deepen further in 2009 in response to the global financial crisis, although the exact magnitude of the growth moderation (or outright decline in some cases) is hard to predict given the uncertainties about global growth, commodity prices, and exchange rates. In nominal dollar terms, officially recorded remittance flows to developing countries are estimated to reach $283 billion in 2008, up 6.7 percent from $265 billion in 2007; but in real terms, remittances are expected to fall from 2 percent of GDP in 2007 to 1.8 percent in 2008.

This brief provides an overview and lessons on how countries of origin governments can play a major role in protecting their migrants abroad through migrant welfare funds. It draws from a study by the Migration Policy Institute, on the Philippine Overseas Workers Welfare Administration (OWWA), a US$172 million government-operated welfare fund that is funded by a mandatory US$25 membership fee for departing Overseas Filipino Workers (OFWs). The Philippine experience shows that a welfare fund has to: (1) find the right balance of services, (2) create meaningful partnerships, (3) build accountability with its members, and (4) actively involve destination countries.

This note provides a glimpse of the institutions built to manage migration in the Philippines. It describes how one country of origin government helps its migrants by regulating overseas employment recruitment, informing migrants of available resources abroad through a mandatory deployment process, providing protection and representation through a migrant welfare fund and absentee voting, and developing recording mechanisms to understand migrants’ needs. Managing migration also comes with a price and governments need to develop a coordinated strategy to sustain such endeavors.

Revised estimates show that remittance flows to developing countries were $251 billion in 2007, up 11 percent from 2006. This Brief discusses the slowdown in remittance flows to Mexico in the first part of 2008. Remittances to countries in Latin America and the Caribbean (El Salvador, Honduras, Guatemala) and Asia (Bangladesh, Pakistan and the Philippines) continue to grow robustly.