Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Implications for Remittance flows to Ukraine and Central Asia
Just seven days into the war, more than a million Ukrainians have left the country, and millions more are expected to migrate or seek asylum in other countries in the coming months. Remittances to Ukraine are likely to increase in 2022. However, remittance flows to Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and the Kyrgyz Republic will likely decline sharply due to the twin effects of a decline in economic activity in Russia and a weakening of the ruble against the US dollar. These short term projections have a high degree of uncertainty around them, dependent on the scale of the military conflict in Ukraine and the effectiveness of the sanctions on outward payments from Russia. The global community should support Ukrainian migrants and refugees by facilitating their journey and ensuring arrival in a safe environment.